This side-by-side animation shows the difference between a lower carbon emissions future and a higher carbon emissions future.
Light yellow represents locations where the temperature exceeds 100°F fewer than 10 days per year. Dark red represents locations where the temperature exceeds 100°F more than 120 days per year.
Learn More >>The biggest factor in determining future warming is the level of heat-trapping gases emitted by human activities. The two scenarios shown in these maps are the B1 (lower) and A2 (higher) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. None of these scenarios includes implementing policies to limit climate change. Rather, the differences among these scenarios are due to different assumptions about changes in population, rate of adoption of new technologies, economic growth, and other factors.
The scenarios shown are not best or worst case. In fact, continuation of current emissions rates would lead to even more warming than shown in the higher emissions case shown here (A2). There are also lower possible emissions paths than the B1 scenario shown here; they would involve sizable and sustained reductions in emissions beginning very soon.
These maps and related information are from Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, a report commissioned by the federal government during the George W. Bush administration, and approved by the 13 federal agencies that make up the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
COMMON CLIMATE QUESTIONS
Is the Earth’s climate really warming?
Yes, it is an unequivocal fact that the Earth’s average temperature continues to rise, despite some natural year-to-year fluctuations. The hottest 10 years on record have all taken place in the
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If forecasts can’t get next week’s weather right, how can we trust predictions for decades or centuries from now?
Weather and climate are not the same. Weather is individual, day-to-day atmospheric events;
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How do we know recent climate change is caused by human factors rather than natural factors?
Climate changes observed over recent decades are inconsistent with trends caused by natural forces but are totally consistent with the increase in human-
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Do climate scientists agree that the world is warming and that humans are the cause?
Scientists with relevant expertise agree that the world is unequivocally warming. They also agree that human activity is the primary cause of warming
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How do we know the Sun is not the cause of recent warming?
Scientists have been measuring the amount of the Sun’s energy reaching the top of Earth’s atmosphere using sensors on satellites since 1978.
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Might urban “heat islands” skew the global temperature record?
Scientists have accounted for these local effects and have verified that they do not skew the global temperature record. For example, one test scientists ...Learn More >>
Does the ice core record show that temperature drives CO₂, not the other way around?
Even though past warm episodes may have been initiated by orbital changes that caused warming and thus caused CO2 ...Learn More >>
Did climate scientists in the 1970s warn of global cooling?
While some media outlets carried this story back in the 1970s, most climate scientists at the time were not concerned about global cooling. ...Learn More >>
Has the “hockey stick” graph been discredited?
Since that paper was published, a number of additional studies have analyzed proxies of past temperature. They all confirm the original “hockey stick” conclusion: the 20th Century is the warmest in the ...Learn More >>
Does satellite data show the atmosphere isn’t warming?
No. Early analyses of satellite data by one group in Alabama did suggest that there was little or no warming in the layer of atmosphere just above the ...Learn More >>
Do errors in the IPCC reports undermine confidence in the science?
Two small errors have been found in one of the IPCC 2007 reports. Neither has anything to do with the basic conclusions that the globe is unequivocally warming ...Learn More >>
Might volcanoes emit more carbon dioxide than human activities?
No. The burning of fossil fuels results in several hundred times as much CO2 release as volcanoes each year. Fossil fuel burning results in the emission of ...Learn More >>
How reliable are climate models?
Climate models are tested against what we know happened in the past and they do accurately map past climate changes. Climate models have also been proven to make accurate predictions ...Learn More >>






































